An Enhanced to Conditional Moderate threat for Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Heavy Rain, and Tornadoes is expected tonight for Central Texas, Southeastern Oaklahoma, Western Missouri, Western Arkansas, and NW Louisana. Severe Weather Synopsis:
A robust upper-level low is digging out of the Rockies this evening and the result will be deepening surface low-pressure system over Nebraska. But to the South of the upper-level low. Strong diverging 50 to 75 kt winds aloft will induce strong convection along the cold front boundary, ahead of this boundary strong lift forcing within a moderate directional and speed shear environment, with ML CAPE of 1750 to 3000 J/kg should result in some discrete cell development with a mid-level jet streak of 70 kts. The ending result will be rotating discrete cell development that may produce some large tornadoes, Heavy Rain, Golfball size hail, and Damaging 70 mph winds. This will be a T-7 outbreak on the Severe weather scale meaning that there a 70% chance for Severe weather in a giving 20-mile radius. More details are in the video
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